Student Loan Bubble and Path Forward for Graduates
| The Student Loan Bubble and Path Forward for Graduates America’s total household debt increased by $193 billion (1.5%) to $13.15 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2017 according to the Federal Reserve. Student loan debt ranks as the second largest household debt falling behind mortgage, and in front of auto loans, credit cards and home equity loans. Household Debt and Credit Developments as of Q4 2017 *Change from Q3 2017 to Q4 2017 **Change from Q4 2016 to Q4 2017 A closer look at student loan debt. 44.5 million student loan borrowers in the U.S. owe a total of $1.5 trillion as of March 2018 according to the Federal Reserve. And, the average college graduate with a bachelor’s degree left school with $28,446 in student debt in 2016 according to Institute of College Access & Success. In 2018, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reports 37.5% of Americans with student loan debt are under the age of 30. Compared to 62.5% of Americans with student loan debt are 30 years old or older. CNBC recently reported “average debt at graduation is currently around $30,000, up from $10,000 in the early 1990s. The country’s outstanding student loan balance is projected to swell to $2 trillion by 2022, and experts say a large portion of it is unlikely to ever be repaid; nearly a quarter of student loan borrowers are currently in a state of delinquency or default.” Although outstanding student loan balances have increased, student loan delinquency flows declined slightly but remain at a high level, according to the Federal Reserve. NerdWallet reports the following status on student loan repayments, painting a grim picture for some borrowers. 3.3 million federal loan borrowers have loans in deferment. 2.6 million federal loan borrowers have loans in forbearance. 4.7 million federal loan borrowers have loans in default. Will the student loan bubble burst? Robert Farrington with Forbes explains how the student loan bubble will not burst, but instead will cause a slow market stagnation that we will see over time. “Student loans are a collateral on earnings, as long as there is earning potential, the ability to have the loans quickly “pop” via any financial mechanism is rare. Yes, bankruptcy for student loan debt is possible, but once again – rare… The net effect of this student loan crisis won’t be a bubble popping – it will be slow drag on the economy.” Discretionary income that would traditionally go to consumer goods and household spending stimulated by homeownership will instead be going to student debt repayment because there simply is not a discretionary income. This could cause a decline for some industries. How student loans effects home ownership. Student debt significantly cuts into future homeowners’ budgets and for many, making it difficult to buy a home. According to the Federal Reserve for every 10 percent in student loan debt a person holds, their chance of home ownership drops 1 to 2 percentage points during their first five years after school. According to the National Association of REALTORS more than 80 percent of non-homeowner younger millennials (born between 1990-1998) cite student loan debt as delaying a home purchase, compared to 86% of older millennials (born between 1980-1989). What does this mean for graduates today? NerdWallet recently analyzed the most recent numbers and issues concerning graduates, and conducted a survey by The Harris Poll in May 2018. In analyzing the data, Brianna McGurran, NerdWallet Student Loans Expert, believes the outlook for graduates is not gloom and doom stating, “New grads are in the best position of all: They have the chance to save smart from the beginning.” Here is what they found for the Class of 2018 Money Outlook: Percentage of recent graduates with student debt: 45% Percentage of recent graduates with student debt who believe they’ll be able to pay it off in 10 years: 39% Age at which graduates of the Class of 2018 can expect to retire: 72 Age at which the Class of 2018 can expect to purchase their first home with a 20% down payment: 36 As with any loan, whether for a student loan or a home, approach it as an educated consumer, here are some tips for paying off student loans for future graduates. Source: David Tandy/TNT |